Unique Research · Insight · October 27, 2023
Multiple forecasts put the global short-video market at roughly $135.9 billion by 2025. TikTok’s ads and commerce engines have been among the main drivers: the platform’s 2023 e-commerce GMV target was $23 billion, and TikTok ads revenue is projected at about $23.58 billion in 2024.
That momentum hit a wall in one of TikTok’s strongest markets. On September 25, 2023, Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo and cabinet ministers decided to revise Trade Ministry regulation Permendag No. 50/2020. The new rule says social platforms may promote goods and services — but may not run direct transactions or payments. The stated aims: curb misuse of public data and keep personal data out of commercial use.
On October 4, TikTok shut TikTok Shop Indonesia and fully separated commerce from the short-video app. Within days, Vietnam and Malaysia officials also signaled closer scrutiny. For Chinese cross-border sellers, Southeast Asia flipped almost overnight from a gold rush to a compliance minefield.
(Context photo: Indonesia’s Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs and Investment Luhut Pandjaitan met TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew at a Southeast Asia Impact Forum in June 2023.)
How big is TikTok Shop in Indonesia?
Indonesia has about 125 million TikTok users. By end-2022, TikTok Shop had become the country’s fifth-largest e-commerce platform. MomentumWorks (Singapore) estimates Indonesia’s 2022 e-commerce GMV at roughly $52 billion, of which about $2.5 billion ran through TikTok.
An industry source told Unique Go-Global that whether TikTok spins commerce out or runs a longer PR campaign, the reset will take time — and local TikTok-dependent merchants will not get quick relief.
To map the impact on Chinese go-global operators, Unique Go-Global spoke with Wu Ye of UTen & Uplus and founder W of an Indonesia-leading TSP (TikTok Shop Partner) firm “S.” Themes: how to salvage losses under force majeure; how Chinese firms are entering a third stage of globalization (products → brands → capacity abroad); why localization is no longer optional; and near-term exits — pause, migrate platforms, or shift markets.
Company S: TSP + MCN + supply chain — GMV goes to zero overnight
S’s Indonesia business has three pillars:
- TSP — shop ops for brands and traders (similar to Douyin agency ops in China).
- MCN — the largest segment: nearly 500 signed creators for live commerce and affiliate push.
- Supply chain — sourcing from China or local factories, then selling via S’s own TikTok stores (live + creator distribution).
S is a local market leader with monthly revenue near $10 million. When TikTok Shop Indonesia was banned, that GMV effectively went to zero.
The ban was not a bolt from the blue. Through H1, Indonesian voices already argued that TikTok Shop’s full-managed programs threatened local MSMEs. Founder W said the team had braced for pressure — but not for a near-immediate takedown. Before the rule landed, S had already tested Shopee and other channels as hedges, yet its core capability remained on TikTok.
Will S pivot hard into other SEA markets? Not yet. Peer countries are watching and may copy Indonesia; S also has not given up on TikTok, running a semi-closed loop while waiting for platform remediation.
UTen: data platform + local category ops
UTen’s Indonesia stack has two layers.
Data platform (creator analytics + SKU analytics, analogous to China’s Chanmama): brands see which products and categories fit locally; guidance on inventory, assortment, and new SKUs; creator profiles, outreach paths, historical sales, watch time, and live frequency.
TikTok Shop commerce: a 50-person local team (4 Chinese, 46 Indonesian) across apparel, Muslim fashion, denim handbags, and lingerie. Apparel and Muslim fashion are locally sourced via affiliate partnerships with Indonesian factories and sellers. Denim handbags and lingerie lean on China supply chains — UTen’s data layer mines Chinese factories for breakout potential, then pushes those SKUs locally.
Still a good business?
SEA e-commerce demand has not vanished — the ban is a regulatory and platform-structure shock, not a demand shock. Operators with single-platform concentration (TikTok-only GMV) face the sharpest hit. Those who already treat localization, multi-channel TSP/MCN, and local supply as first-class work have more room to re-route. The open question for Chinese go-global teams is less “is SEA dead?” and more “how fast can you diversify platforms and deepen local ops before the next regulator moves?”