Unique Research · Insight · October 24, 2024 · Source: ARK Invest research (CN editorial)
CLI → GUI → web → touch mobile — next, GenAI drives HCI into a new era. Incumbents and new hardware vendors fold GenAI into OS; phones get AI-first redesigns; AI wearables may reach smartphone-like ubiquity by late 2020s. Adoption half-lives: phone ~70y · PC <26y · mobile 16y · smartphone 6y. ARK: AI-agent consumer hardware could hit 50% of U.S. internet users in <4 years and ~75% by end-2030 from near-zero in 2022.
1 · Agents simplify commerce
AI agents: (1) understand NL queries, (2) execute web tasks, (3) adapt to preferences — a layer above the OS that abstracts complexity. Automate discovery, research, personalized curation; cut direct app hops. Example: skip hours of travel-site compare for a preference-tuned assistant (insurance, prescriptions, home services). Cox Automotive: new-car research time 12.5h → ~15h (+18% 2021–22) — agents compare features/price/financing instantly. Brand loyalty may shift from consumer apps/marketplaces to trusted agents (availability, price, delivery speed). ARK: by late 2020s agents may facilitate ~$9T of global personal consumption (near zero today); by 2030 AI influences ~25% of global online consumer goods/services sales. Search, marketplaces, D2C will all ship AI assistants to fight for that volume. Short-term: engines/marketplaces may gate OS-origin AI traffic; long-term: OS-level agents raise consumer utility until inventory opens — akin to merchants accepting cards/wallets/BNPL despite cash preference.
2 · Agent advertising
Linear search→results→ads funnel shrinks as agents own high-intent moments. Agent ads must feel natural, contextual, transparent on privacy/utility tradeoffs. Two forms: retrieval ads (search-like sponsored alongside organic) and proactive intent ads from OS-level authorized calendar/app behavior (e.g. birthday-party cake offer). Hardware OS fragmentation may move ad dollars from closed gardens to aggregators — or keep Apple/Google/Meta ecosystems requiring direct buy-in.
3–4 · Natural UI & OS winners
Gesture + voice natural UIs expand agent reach (charts in CN). Historical OS share winners paired developer ecosystems, distribution, and default status — same playbook likely for agent platforms. Full strategy cases in CN figures (~18 imgs).
Not investment advice.
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